Singapore Telecommunications Ltd: Will the rally continue or fizzle in 2026?

Sachin Mittal11 Dec 2025
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  • Singtel’s share price has risen ~45% in 2025, led by a rise in the market value of associates and a sharp reduction in Holding Company discount  
  • In 2026, we expect Singtel’s core business to re-rate from just 5x 12M forward EV/EBITDA to the regional average of 7x EV/EBITDA catalysed  by doubling of its data centre capacity in early 2026 and stabilisation of Singapore mobile ARPU in mid-2026. 
  • BUY with revised TP of SGD5.71 (prev SGD5.04) led by rise in the core business value. The stock offers 13% earnings CAGR over FY26F-28F with over 4% yield. Potential acquisition of a stake in STT GDC at a fair value might be neutral in the near term but positive in the medium term. 

     


We estimate around 20–21ppts of the share price rise came from the higher market value of its associates, led by Bharti Airtel (~31% YTD), Telkomsel (~44% YTD). HoldCo discount narrowed from about 34% to 18% as investors gained confidence in management’s value-realisation strategy, driving another 15% rise in the share price. While the rest ~10% share price rise came from higher core business value due to a similar rise in the core EBIT led by ARPU rise in Australia, margin uplift at NCS and SGD200m cost savings program. 


Breakdown of Singtel’s 45% share price YTD increase in 2025 by key drivers

DriverContribution (%)
Rise in Associates’ Market Value~20%
Narrowing of HoldCo Discount ~15%
Rise in the Core Value~10%
Total share price increase~45%

Source: Companies, DBS


Holding discount narrowed to 18% during December2025

Source: Company, Reuters, DBS


Singtel’s core business still trades at just under 5x FY26F EV/EBITDA, versus 7x for regional peers.
We forecast core EBITDA (which excludes associates) CAGR of ~5% over FY26–28F (vs ~4% for peers), underpinned by (i) doubling of its data centre capacity in Singapore to 120MW with opening up of 58 MW Jurong DC in early 2026, (ii) stabilization of its Singapore mobile ARPU in mid-2026 due to sector consolidation and (ii) continued growth of Optus and NCS. At current levels, Singtel effectively functions as a cheap proxy to Bharti Airtel (~55% of our valuation). On our numbers, 12-month forward core EBITDA of SGD4.12bn at 7x implies core equity value of SGD1.57 per share (~34% of its market cap) , versus SGD0.94 per share earlier. 


Singtel core business is value at SGD1.57 per share due to higher multiple and lower debt

 

12m fwd EBITDA (SGDmn)

EV/EBITDA

Exchange Rate

Ownership

Value (SGDm)

Per Share (SGD)

 

Singtel Core business 

           4,116 

7.0

1.0

100%

           28,810         1.75  

Net Debt

               (2,849)      (0.17) 

 

       

Equity value of the core business

               25,869         1.57 Prev 0.94

Source: DBS

 

12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA multiples and CAGR of regional peers 

 

12M forward EV/EBITDA Multiple (x)

FY25-FY27F CAGR

Indonesia  
Telkom Indonesia5.63.9%
Indosat3.94.5%
XLSmart3.811.0%
Malaysia  
Maxis Berhad8.82.8%
Celcom Digi Berhad8.23.3%
Telekom Malaysia Berhad5.83.1%
Axiata Group Berhad6.20.4%
Thailand  
Advanced Info Service9.13.6%
True Corp6.24.4%
Australia  
Telstra8.34.1%
Peer Average7.0x4.0%

Source: Companies, DBS


Singapore’s mobile market is expected to shift towards a more rational competition. 
Singapore mobile sector consolidation would reduce the number of mobile network operators back to three with decent market shares in a mature market.  Blended mobile ARPU for Singtel has already fallen from about SGD38.0 in 2019 to SGD23.0 in 1H25 (StarHub: SGD30.6 to SGD21.0 over the same period), underscoring how deep the earlier price compression has been. From this low base, we expect ARPU to bottom out around mid-2026 and recover by ~10% over the subsequent two years aided by 5G monetisation. 


Singapore blended ARPU has declined sharply, expected to stabilise in mid-2026 and recover in 2027

Source: Companies, DBS


On top of the core mobile business, growth in Singapore is increasingly driven by Nxera, Singtel’s digital-infrastructure arm.
 Nxera has secured a SGD643m green loan to fund DC Tuas, an ~58MW AI-ready data centre scheduled to start operations in 2026 and is building out a regional platform of hyperscale facilities across Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. Singtel and KKR are also in advanced talks to acquire a larger stake in ST Telemedia Global Data Centres, which would significantly expand Singtel’s exposure to a fast-growing, higher-multiple data-centre portfolio. Taken together, a more consolidated domestic mobile market and a scaled, AI-focused data-centre franchise are key drivers of a higher valuation for Singtel’s Singapore operations and Digital InfraCo.


Pricing momentum favors Optus for ROIC improvement.
 Australia remains a concentrated three-player mobile market (Telstra, Optus, TPG), where rising data consumption and extensive 5G coverage are being effectively monetised through price increases. In 2025, Optus raised most SIM-only postpaid plans by AUD2–6 per month and lifted key prepaid packs by around AUD4. Telstra and TPG followed with similar repricing from July 2025, increasing core SIM-only and mobile-broadband offers by AUD4–7 per month. Industry ARPU trends underscore this structural shift: between December 2022 and June 2025, Telstra’s blended ARPU rose from AUD44.0 to AUD47.4, Optus from AUD33.7 to AUD36.6, and TPG from AUD30.9 to AUD36.0, with distinct step-ups around December 2023 and December 2024. With ARPUs rising and 5G capex beginning to normalise, the Australian mobile sector is entering a more cash-generative phase. For Optus, this strengthens the case for a re-rating, supported by improving unit economics and better capital efficiency. We forecast an EBITDA CAGR of ~4% over FY26–28F, from continued price discipline and a meaningful recovery in its currently low ROIC (c.2%) over the next three to four years.


Sustained ARPU Gains Signal Stronger Returns for Optus

*We have taken Optus (March YE), Telstra (June YE) revenues, also according to the calendar year, for comparison purposes. TPG is December YE company. *We have shown data only until 1H25 since the 2H25 data are not available yet, and quarterly data are not available for all the companies.

Source: Companies, Reuters, DBS

 

Bharti Airtel is expected to benefit from a near-term tariff hike 

Bharti Airtel’s mobile ARPU is inching towards its medium-term goal of INR300Consensus has raised Bharti’s Airtel target price to INR2,290 (from INR2,042) in anticipation of another ~15% tariff hike in India's mobile sector, in Dec 2025 coupled with moderation in 5G capex boosting free cash flow. India’s mobile industry continues with “tariff repair”, reflected in Bharti Airtel’s rising ARPU, which reached to INR257.8 in 2Q26 (up +10% y/y, +2.3% q/q). Airtel has benefitted from July 2024 tariff hikes (10%-21% hike across plans) and ongoing migration to higher-value 4G/5G data plans. The market has effectively consolidated into a 2+1 structure in which Reliance Jio and Airtel gain share as Vodafone Idea remains capital- and spectrum-constrained, reducing the risk of renewed price wars. Airtel’s Management continues to emphasise the need for higher ARPU, reaffirming the INR300 target in January 2025 as essential for sustainable returns. As and when Reliance Jio is listed, greater public-market scrutiny of its free cash flow and returns should further enhance the focus on profitable growth and rational pricing.


Bharti Airtel’s mobile ARPU has been rising consistently

Source: Companies, DBS


On top of mobile, Airtel’s Nxtra already operating ~230MW of data centre capacity and planning to almost double to ~400MW by 2027
. This will be supported by 14+ large facilities and 120+ edge data centres across the country. Nxtra provides Airtel with a second structural growth engine, supplying datacentre and connectivity infrastructure to hyperscalers and enterprises (rather than a pure competitor), supported by its strategic cloud partnership with Google. Stronger ARPU-led earnings growth and Nxtra’s scaling data-centre platform anchored by hyperscaler demand and its Google partnership — are improving Airtel’s long-term outlook, supporting higher valuations for Bharti. 


Top DC players in India with their existing MW capacity

Operators

Current Capacity (MW)

STT GDC India 

~390

NTT Ltd

~290

CtrlS Datacenters 

~250

Nxtra Data (Bharti Airtel)

~230

Sify Technologies

~227

Source: Companies, Data Infra Hub, DBS


Telkomsel, which contributes ~8% (SGD 0.46/share) to our Singtel valuation, is well-positioned to benefit from Indonesia’s improving mobile market structure.
 Industry dynamics turned materially more favourable from 2Q25 as consolidation gained momentum and competition shifted toward greater pricing discipline. Following an aggressive 2024 price war, when starter packs fell to IDR10,000 operators implemented meaningful tariff resets between April and June 2025. Entry-level pack prices have normalised to IDR25,000–35,000 across Telkomsel, Indosat and the newly formed XLSmart, restoring tariff integrity and driving a 3–5% q/q ARPU uplift in 3Q25. With the XL Axiata–Smartfren merger reducing the market from four players to three, we see structurally lower discounting and better pricing power ahead. ARPU recovery is already evident for TLKM, rising to IDR43 in 3Q25 after declining to IDR41 in 1Q25. We expect this trajectory to continue, supporting FY26F ARPU growth of ~4%. In parallel, TLKM’s planned InfraCo monetisation (IDR100–150tn) provides a clear catalyst for value crystallisation and balance sheet optimisation. To reflect a more balanced sector outlook, we maintain our 12-month forward P/E at 15x, but maintain a constructive stance given Telkomsel’s earnings resilience and strengthening industry fundamentals. We forecast EBITDA CAGR of ~4% and earnings CAGR of ~9% over 2025–27F, underpinned by ongoing consolidation-driven ARPU recovery.


Sector consolidation to support TLKM’s ARPU recovery in FY26F

 

Source: Companies, Reuters, DBS



Our underlying earnings projections are in line with consensus for FY26F but 7% below consensus in FY27F

SGD mn

 

DBS

Consensus (Visible Alpha)

DBS vs Consensus

FY25

FY26F

FY27F

FY28F

FY26F

FY27F

FY28F

FY26F

FY27F

FY28F

Revenue

14,146

14,506

14,869

15,129

14,337

14,887

15,278

1%

0%

-1%

Core EBIT

1,381

1,564

1,748

1,944

1,528

1,737

1,886

1%

1%

3%

Associate (pre-tax)

2,499

 2,815 

 3,258 

 3,719 

3,241

3,430

3,981

-13%

-5%

-5%

Underlying earnings

2,470

2,775

3,164

3,590

2,814

3,399

3,879

-1%

-7%

-8%

Source: Visible Alpha, DBS


Maintain BUY with a higher TP of SGD5.71 (from SGD5.04). 
Our revised valuation reflects stronger contributions from the core business and associates. We have raised the valuation multiple for Singtel’s core operations to 7x 12-month forward EV/EBITDA (prev. 5x), driving a core value of  SGD1.57/share (prev. SGD0.94). This uplift is supported by Singtel’s robust 5% core EBITDA CAGR over FY26–28F, outperforming the peer average of ~4%.  We now value Singtel’s associates at SGD4.14/share (prev. SGD4.10), applying an unchanged 10% HoldCo discount to consensus target prices. For Telkomsel, we maintain the 12-month forward P/E multiple at 15x, recognising its ability to benefit from ongoing industry consolidation. Potential acquisition of STT GDC at a fair value, could add another high-growth associate besides Bharti, neutral in the near term but positive in 3-4 years.  If Singtel goes ahead with the acquisition, we expect Singtel to acquire 20-25% stake in STT GDC with KKR acquiring the bulk of the stake. 


Regional associates are worth SGD4.14 (unchanged) per share based on their target prices

 

Target Price

Exchange Rates

Stake

Value (SGD mn)

Per share (SGD)

Per share (SGD) after 10% HoldCo

Previous(SGD) after |10% HoldCo

Bharti Airtel

2,290.00

69.50

27.5%

51,670

3.13

2.82

2.64

AIS

330.00

24.60

23.3%

9,296

0.56

0.51

0.48

Gulf Development

59.50

24.60

7.7%

2,782

0.17

0.15

0.15

Globe

2,173.00

45.50

46.7%

3,220

0.20

0.18

0.19

SingPost

0.71

1

21.8%

349

0.02

0.02

0.02

NetLink NBN* Trust

1.08

1

24.8%

1,044

0.06

0.06

0.05

Regional Associates

FY27F (March YE) PER

Exchange Rates

Stake

Value (SGD mn)

Per share (SGD)

Per share (SGD) after 10% HoldCo

Previous (SGD) after 10% HoldCo

Telkomsel

15

12,720

30.1%

7,607

0.46

0.41

0.56

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Associate Valuation

 

 

 

68,371

4.60

4.14

4.10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Core business valuation

 

 

 

 

 

1.57

0.94

Associate valuation

 

 

 

 

 

4.14

4.10

SINGTEL VALUATION

 

 

 

 

 

5.71

5.04

Source: Companies, DBS

 

 

 



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