Equities Weekly: US Equities - Strong Start to Earnings Season Affirms Broadening Rally Call
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Chief Investment Office24 Apr 2024
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US Equities: Strong start to earnings season affirms broadening rally call. We are in the early innings of the 1Q24 US earnings season with 70 out of the 499 companies in the S&P500 having reported results. To summarise: so far, so good. Banks kicked off with largely positive results, driven by net interest income and investment banking and trading income. Nonetheless, shares sold off due to a risk-off wave stemming from heightened geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and moderating expectations of rate cuts. It was a similar story with some of the other technology, healthcare and consumer staples companies that have reported: a good proportion of beats on sales and earnings were seen, but this has not reflected in share prices. Overall, it appears that most companies have guided for resilient earnings outlook, although uncertainties remain given the aforementioned left-tail risks.

Against this backdrop of earnings growth and resilient economic momentum, we maintain our overweight call on US equities, with preference for tech-related plays given the sector’s robust earnings momentum and strong cash generating ability. The quality and resilience of Big Tech will remain important elements sought after by investors. Additionally, we believe the energy sector will benefit from a broadening rally based on its buoyant earnings and attractive ROE, as well as light investor positioning. We have provided more details of our bullish view on US energy in a recent CIO Perspectives titled: Global Oil & Gas: Dawn of New Era for US Shale Oil.

Equity fund flows: Outflows continue amid heightened geopolitical risk. The week ended 17 April saw a continuation of outflows from the past week; the outflows were again broad-based, with both Emerging Markets and Developed Markets Equity Funds seeing redemptions. The prospects of an all-out war between Iran and Israel saw US, Europe and Japan Equity Funds record outflows. On the EM side, AxJ Equity Funds were the sole major regional group to attract fresh money thanks to flows into India Equity Funds. China Equity Funds saw its sixth straight outflow during the week.


Figure 1: Profitability of US Oil & Gas to stay buoyant as favourable conditions persist


Source: Bloomberg, DBS


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