Asset Risks Dashboard
Our surveillance risk scores across Equities, Interest Rates, Credit and FX aim to track market conditions and gauge risk sentiments.
Welcome to our macro risk dashboard page. In the interactive visualisations below, you can toggle across time series representations of risk assessment under each of four key asset classes. Full description of how the composite risk scores are calculated is provided below, along with a short commentary on the underlying drivers and developments.
Latest update: 17 August 2026
Equities
Risk score based on weighted average 5-year rolling Z-scores of the following indicators : S&P 500 Volatility (50%) and Valuation (50%).
The equities risk score remains benign, and is at its lowest level since the end of 2025. US equities continue to hover near record highs, while the VIX stays low. Optimism, driven by strong US corporate earnings, the artificial intelligence boom, and less hawkish Fed, has supported US stocks, despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The risk score could rise into stress levels if the AI rally were to falter, geopolitical tensions were to re-escalate significantly, the US Fed hikes rates, and/or unforeseen risks were to appear.
Interest Rates
Risk score based on weighted average 5-year rolling Z-scores of the following indicators : 3M/10Y US Treasury yield spread (30%), 10Y US real yield (15%), 5Y5Y inflation swap (10%), 10Y US swaption volatility (15%) and 10Y Italy BTP - German Bund yield spread (30%).
The interest rate risk score remains benign, and is now balancing the impact of ongoing US-Iran tensions against shifts in the US Fed outlook, having eased from the cyclical high sparked by the onset of the Middle East conflict. US rate volatility is range-bound, the steepening of the US 10-year/3-month spread has stalled, but the US real yield has risen further. The Italy-Germany bond yield spread is contained, as Italy’s fiscal concerns have eased. The risk score could be biased much higher should severe stress conditions were to surface from mounting expectations of US Fed rate hike, even as global oil prices are below their peak, and/or if unexpected financial instability events were to emerge.
Credit
Risk score based on weighted average 5-year rolling Z-scores of the following indicators : USD Libor-OIS spread (25%), US High Yield spread (25%), Europe High Yield spread (25%) and Emerging Markets Sovereign Credit spread (25%).
The credit risk score remains benign, following the easing that occurred after an earlier spike triggered by the onset of the Middle East conflict. The score has remained stable as US High Yield, Euro High Yield, and EM sovereign credit spreads have narrowed amid benign risk sentiment, with global crude oil prices below their peak even as tensions in the Middle East continue to evolve. US dollar liquidity has eased slightly from the tight levels last seen since the pandemic crisis, with the US Federal Reserve ending quantitative tightening on December 1. The risk score would be biased higher if, if there were an unexpected deterioration in US and DM growth, intensifying financial stability risks, a sharp rise in EM stress, and/or significant re-escalate of geopolitical tensions.
Foreign Exchange
Risk score based on weighted average 5-year rolling Z-scores of the following indicators : Broad US Dollar (70%), EUR-USD xccy basis swap Measure of USD funding premium/discount relative to EUR (15%) and JPY-USD xccy basis swap (15%).
The FX risk score has eased into a more benign zone since the end of July. A combination of a US Fed that appears reluctant to hike rates, and co-ordinated US-Japan currency interventions has weighed on the US dollar. The USD’s appeal continues to be challenged by investor concerns over ongoing US policy uncertainties, the durability of US exceptionalism, and long-term fiscal sustainability. US funding conditions remain comfortable in the Euro and Japanese markets, albeit with a slight tightening bias.
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