Asset Risks Dashboard
Our surveillance risk scores across Equities, Interest Rates, Credit and FX aim to track market conditions and gauge risk sentiments.
Welcome to our macro risk dashboard page. In the interactive visualisations below, you can toggle across time series representations of risk assessment under each of four key asset classes. Full description of how the composite risk scores are calculated is provided below, along with a short commentary on the underlying drivers and developments.
Latest update: 25 May 2026
Equities
Risk score based on weighted average 5-year rolling Z-scores of the following indicators : S&P 500 Volatility (50%) and Valuation (50%).
The equities risk score remains benign, and is edging lower despite evolving headlines surrounding the US-Iran war. US equities have rallied to record highs, while the VIX has remained contained following the initial volatility sparked by the onset of the Middle East conflict. Optimism driven by the artificial intelligence boom, strong US corporate earnings, and stabilising labour market has supported US stocks despite the ongoing conflict and spike in energy prices. The risk score could rise into stress levels if the broader Middle East conflict persists, the AI rally falters, US tariff risks re-emerge, and/or unforeseen risks appear.
Interest Rates
Risk score based on weighted average 5-year rolling Z-scores of the following indicators : 3M/10Y US Treasury yield spread (30%), 10Y US real yield (15%), 5Y5Y inflation swap (10%), 10Y US swaption volatility (15%) and 10Y Italy BTP - German Bund yield spread (30%).
The interest rate risk score has eased from the cyclical high sparked by the onset of the Middle East conflict, and remains benign. US rate volatility has declined, but this has stalled due to uncertainty surrounding a lasting resolution of the Iran war amid evolving headlines. The US 10-year/3-month spread has steepened further, while the US real yield has risen, reflecting inflation concerns driven by elevated energy prices stemming from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The risk score could be biased much higher should severe stress conditions emerge from a sharp broadening of global inflationary pressures that trigger increased probability of rate hikes, and/or unexpected financial instability events.
Credit
Risk score based on weighted average 5-year rolling Z-scores of the following indicators : USD Libor-OIS spread (25%), US High Yield spread (25%), Europe High Yield spread (25%) and Emerging Markets Sovereign Credit spread (25%).
The credit risk score remains benign, and has declined, following an upward spike triggered by the onset of the Middle East conflict. The score has eased as US High Yield, Euro High Yield, and EM sovereign credit spreads have narrowed amid improved risk sentiment, despite fluctuating headlines surrounding the resolution of the Iran war since the two-week fragile ceasefire was reached on April 8. US dollar liquidity has stabilised at tight levels unseen since the pandemic crisis, with the US Federal Reserve ending quantitative tightening on December 1. Nonetheless, the associated energy price shock continues to pose risks to corporates through higher operating costs. The risk score would be biased higher if the Middle East conflict is prolonged, US and DM growth deteriorate significantly, alongside financial stability risks intensifying unexpectedly, and/or EM stress mounts.
Foreign Exchange
Risk score based on weighted average 5-year rolling Z-scores of the following indicators : Broad US Dollar (70%), EUR-USD xccy basis swap Measure of USD funding premium/discount relative to EUR (15%) and JPY-USD xccy basis swap (15%).
The FX risk score has pulled back further in May, and is hovering near its cyclical low prior to the onset of the Middle East conflict. The uptick in March, driven by a flight to safety into the US dollar, has unwound as risk sentiment across financial markets has improved, despite fluctuating headlines surrounding the resolution of the Iran war following the two-week fragile ceasefire reached on April 8. While the US Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, the USD’s appeal is being challenged by investor concerns over US exceptionalism, long-term fiscal sustainability, and ongoing policy uncertainties. US funding conditions remain comfortable in the Euro and Japanese markets, albeit with a slight tightening bias.
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates, Digital Assets or Commodities)[1]
The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies. The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.
[#for Distribution in Singapore] This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E.
DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability. 18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.
DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability. 11th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.
[1] This disclaimer may not apply if the applicable assets fall within the definition of 'financial instruments' that are set out in Article 2(1) EU MAR (e.g. financial instruments that are traded on a regulated market, MTF or OTF, etc.). Section C of Annex I of MiFID2 specifies these 'financial instruments'.
