Asset Risks Dashboard
Our surveillance risk scores across Equities, Interest Rates, Credit and FX aim to track market conditions and gauge risk sentiments.
Welcome to our macro risk dashboard page. In the interactive visualisations below, you can toggle across time series representations of risk assessment under each of four key asset classes. Full description of how the composite risk scores are calculated is provided below, along with a short commentary on the underlying drivers and developments.
Latest update: 5 May 2025
Equities
Risk score based on weighted average 5-year rolling Z-scores of the following indicators : S&P 500 Volatility (50%) and Valuation (50%).
The equities risk score, having spiked to stressed levels in early April, has reverted to benign. The spike was triggered by the announcement of sweeping US reciprocal tariffs on Liberation Day, which caused a tumble in US equities and a surge in the VIX. Despite the 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs, equity market volatility persists due to policy uncertainty surrounding sky-high tariffs between the US and China, and the timing of potential US sectoral tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceutical products. The risk score could return to stress levels if tariffs escalate towards a global trade war, the US shows clearer signs of deterioration, and/or the emergence of unforeseen risks.
Interest Rates
Risk score based on weighted average 5-year rolling Z-scores of the following indicators : 3M/10Y US Treasury yield spread (30%), 10Y US real yield (15%), 5Y5Y inflation swap (10%), 10Y US swaption volatility (15%) and 10Y Italy BTP - German Bund yield spread (30%).
The interest rate risk score continued to increase since reaching a multi-year bottom in mid-February 2025. This continued rise can be attributed to heightened US interest rate volatility, and a flatter US 3M/10Y yield curve compared to January 2025, amid growing investor concerns about US economic growth and institutional credibility. However, European sovereign spreads have been well-behaved amid the European Central Bank’s ongoing interest rate cuts. The risk score could be biased much higher should severe stress conditions emerge from a rapid deterioration in US economic growth conditions.
Credit
Risk score based on weighted average 5-year rolling Z-scores of the following indicators : USD Libor-OIS spread (25%), US High Yield spread (25%), Europe High Yield spread (25%) and Emerging Markets Sovereign Credit spread (25%).
The credit risk score has increased to its highest level since late 2022, though it remains within benign conditions. This rise has been driven by widening spreads across US High Yield, Euro High Yield, and EM sovereign credit. US dollar liquidity has also tightened to levels unseen since the pandemic crisis. The risk score would be biased higher if US and DM growth deteriorates significantly, alongside unexpected intensification of financial stability risks, and/or mounting EM stress.
Foreign Exchange
Risk score based on weighted average 5-year rolling Z-scores of the following indicators : Broad US Dollar (70%), EUR-USD xccy basis swap Measure of USD funding premium/discount relative to EUR (15%) and JPY-USD xccy basis swap (15%).
The FX risk score, having declined to its lowest level since September 2024 in April 2025, has returned to benign. The US dollar corrected further due to concerns about the negative implications of high tariffs on US growth, ongoing trade policy uncertainty arising from tariff escalation and negotiation truce, and US President Trump’s rhetoric that appears to undermine the Fed’s independence, a cornerstone of US economic credibility. That said, US funding conditions remain comfortable in the Euro and Japanese markets.
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The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). This report is intended for “Accredited Investors” and “Institutional Investors” (defined under the Financial Advisers Act and Securities and Futures Act of Singapore, and their subsidiary legislation), as well as “Professional Investors” (defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong) only. It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies. The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.
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