Asset Risks Dashboard
Our surveillance risk scores across Equities, Interest Rates, Credit and FX aim to track market conditions and gauge risk sentiments.
Welcome to our macro risk dashboard page. In the interactive visualisations below, you can toggle across time series representations of risk assessment under each of four key asset classes. Full description of how the composite risk scores are calculated is provided below, along with a short commentary on the underlying drivers and developments.
Latest update: 20 April 2026
Equities
Risk score based on weighted average 5-year rolling Z-scores of the following indicators : S&P 500 Volatility (50%) and Valuation (50%).
The equities risk score is experiencing significant volatility but remains benign. US equities rallied and the VIX plunged following a fragile two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran reached on April 8. The Iran-centred Middle East conflict has escalated since February 27, after the US attacked Iran, causing the VIX to jump amid heightened risk aversion although US equities appear resilient with a downward bias. The risk score could rise further into stress levels if the broader Middle East conflict persists, the AI rally falters, US tariff risks re-emerge, and/or unforeseen risks appear.
Interest Rates
Risk score based on weighted average 5-year rolling Z-scores of the following indicators : 3M/10Y US Treasury yield spread (30%), 10Y US real yield (15%), 5Y5Y inflation swap (10%), 10Y US swaption volatility (15%) and 10Y Italy BTP - German Bund yield spread (30%).
The interest rate risk score is experiencing heightened volatility, but has eased from its highest level since late-October 2025, and remains benign. US rate volatility has pulled back following a fragile two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran reached on April 8, raising the possibility that the worst-case scenario of a prolonged Middle East conflict could be negotiated and avoided. However, the US real yield and the US 10-year/3-month spread have not declined meaningfully, reflecting continued inflation concerns due to elevated energy prices stemming from the Iran-centred Middle East conflict. The risk score could be biased much higher should severe stress conditions emerge from a sharp broadening of global inflationary pressures, and/or unexpected financial instability events.
Credit
Risk score based on weighted average 5-year rolling Z-scores of the following indicators : USD Libor-OIS spread (25%), US High Yield spread (25%), Europe High Yield spread (25%) and Emerging Markets Sovereign Credit spread (25%).
The credit risk score is experiencing heightened volatility but remains benign. The score has eased as US High Yield, Euro High Yield, and EM sovereign credit spreads have narrowed following a fragile two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran reached on April 8. Risk sentiment has improved after deteriorating during the escalation of the Middle East conflict in March. Nonetheless, the associated energy price shock continues to pose risks to corporates through higher operating costs. US dollar liquidity remains at tight levels unseen since the pandemic crisis, with the US Federal Reserve ending quantitative tightening on December 1. The risk score would be biased higher if the Middle East conflict is prolonged, US and DM growth deteriorate significantly, alongside financial stability risks intensifying unexpectedly, and/or EM stress mounts.
Foreign Exchange
Risk score based on weighted average 5-year rolling Z-scores of the following indicators : Broad US Dollar (70%), EUR-USD xccy basis swap Measure of USD funding premium/discount relative to EUR (15%) and JPY-USD xccy basis swap (15%).
The FX risk score has pulled back in April following a fragile two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran reached on April 8, having rebounded in March. The uptick in March was driven by a flight to safety into the US dollar amid uncertainty surrounding the Iran-centred Middle East conflict. However, the USD’s haven appeal is being challenged by investor concerns over US exceptionalism, long-term fiscal sustainability, and ongoing policy uncertainties. US funding conditions remain comfortable in the Euro and Japanese markets, albeit with a slight tightening bias.
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