digiPortfolio Updates and Market Insights
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Stay tuned to this page to get the latest news on the investment world and how we’re moving your portfolio to be resilient in rain or shine.
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- Watch quarterly videos for updates on the markets
- Read commentaries on how digiPortfolio has managed your portfolio
- Gain insights to market changes and how it affects investments
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Who moved my investment portfolio?
Keep up-to-date with quarterly videos that cover hot topics in the investment world and views that are driving your investment portfolios.
Bonds vs Stocks: How to invest in 2023?
Bonds and stocks are commonly invested assets, but what exactly are they? Uncover the key differences between them and understand which is better in the current market.
The AI boom: What to make of a stock rally
Should we get into the action with AI stocks trending? And how should we approach stock rallies in general? Let's discover with Alvin and Robin.
King, Queen & Castle
In 1H23, global equities rallied by +13.9% while global bonds returned +1.4%. The rebound in equities extended into Q2, driven by supportive economic growth data. On the contrary, fixed income detracted over the quarter as further rate hikes were factored in due to persistent core inflation.
Looking ahead into Q3, we maintain our cautiously optimistic stance and focus on quality assets across both equities and fixed income. We maintain an overall neutral stance on equities with a focus on Asia, and a neutral stance on fixed income with a focus on developed market high quality government and corporate bonds.
Income Portfolio (Funds-based)
In 1H23, global equities rallied by +13.9% while global bonds returned +1.4%. The rebound in equities extended into Q2, driven by supportive economic growth data. On the contrary, fixed income detracted over the quarter as further rate hikes were factored in due to persistent core inflation.
During the period, the Income portfolio returned +0.9% (in SGD terms) and +1.1% (in USD terms) in addition to the income distributions, with all positions contributing positively. In Q2 2023, top contributors were global quality equities fund – AB Low Volatility Equity Fund, global dividend equities fund – Fidelity Global Dividend Fund and global multi-asset fund – First Eagle Amundi Income Builder. Despite the challenges in fixed income market, our recent addition PIMCO GIS Income Fund added positive value to the portfolio.
As of end-June 2023, the portfolio’s allocation is approximately 43% in global equities and 54% in global bonds. Within equities, the focus continues to remain on dividend-oriented funds with stable cash flow generation (Average dividend yield 2.9%). Our fixed income is targeted towards higher quality investment grade bonds, with an average credit rating of A and a yield to maturity of 6.2%.
We estimate an underlying income stream within the portfolio to be over 4.5% p.a., supported by higher yields from fixed income and income equities.
Looking ahead into Q3 2023, we maintain our cautiously optimistic stance and focus on quality assets across both equities and fixed income. We maintain an overall neutral stance on equities with a focus on Asia, and a neutral stance on fixed income with a focus on developed market high quality government and corporate bonds. Hence, we initiated a new position in Schroder Asia More+ by shifting from Schroder Asian Income, to capture the income and growth opportunities in Asia.
Lastly, we view that interest rates are near peak and hence, maintain a preference for fixed income over cash given the positive yield carry from high quality credit.
Income Portfolio | Comfy Cruisin’ | |
---|---|---|
2Q 2023 | SGD | -0.4% |
USD | -0.7% |
Figures as of 30 June 2023.
The above table is based on the Indicative Model Portfolio gross of fees returns. Individual performance may vary.
SaveUp Portfolio (Funds-based)
During 1H23, Singapore short term investment grade corporate bonds, as represented by the iBoxx SGD Investment Grade 1-3 year Total Return Index rose 1.2%, helped by rise in short term market yields. The SaveUp portfolio, returned -0.7% (before income distributions), with all holdings providing a positive total return in the period.
The SaveUp portfolio focuses on maintaining a duration of less than 3 years; hence, it is more sensitive to the 2-year US Treasury bond yield movements. In 2Q23, the 2-year US-Treasury bond yields increased from 4.1% to 4.9%, on growth resilience and a hawkish central bank policy.
The SaveUp model portfolio characteristics are as follows: portfolio yield-to-maturity stood at 5.5%, with a duration of about 3.1 years. It has an average credit rating of A with high yield allocation below 10%, supported by our focus on quality.
In 3Q23, we have initiated a new position in Fullerton Short Term Interest Rate Fund, which is a short-duration, (average duration: 1.3 years) high quality (average credit rating: A) SGD portfolio providing a yield of 4.8%. We entered the position by exiting the Schroder Asian Investment Grade Credit Fund, which has increased its duration in the last few months. Hence, to maintain our short duration target, we performed this switch which would bring the portfolio duration down to 2.6 years and increase the portfolio yield-to-maturity to 5.6%.
Going forward, we believe that the rate cycle is nearing its end, and with bond market having repriced for higher rates, it presents an opportunity for fixed income investors. As such, quality short-term fixed income yields are at a multi-decade high, providing an attracting risk-reward for investors seeking a higher return than those offered by fixed deposits or SG T-bills.
SaveUp Portfolio | Slow n’ Steady | |
---|---|---|
2Q 2023 | SGD | -1.3% |
Figures as of 30 June 2023.
The above table is based on the Indicative Model Portfolio gross of fees returns. Individual performance may vary.
Global Portfolio (ETF-based)
Over 2Q23, global equities rose by +6.2% (as measured by the MSCI All Country World Index) on the back of better-than-expected corporate earnings, sound economic fundamentals and robust employment trends. Given the resilient economy, inflation data (while moderating) was more persistent than expected, prompting the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to consider raising interest rates further. This led to the global bond markets (as measured by the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index) correcting by -1.5%. Gold price also declined by -2.5% over 2Q23 as the US dollar strengthened.
The Global (Comfy Cruisin') portfolio returned +1.4% over 2Q23, mainly driven by equities while fixed income detracted due to the move-up in long-term bond yields. Within equities, U.S. and Japan equities were the biggest positive contributors, while China equities continued to languish on concerns over weaker than expected economic recovery momentum.
On the whole, we stay cautiously optimistic and continue to stay fully engaged in the markets. While there are talks of the Fed hiking interest rates in July, it is also likely that the Fed is nearing the end of the current rate hike cycle. This would be supportive for risk assets such as equities and bonds. Given the cheap valuation of Chinese equities, we find optionality in China and will maintain our Asia/China exposure.
Global Portfolio | Slow n’ Steady | Comfy Cruisin’ | Fast n’ Furious | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2Q 2023 | USD | -0.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% |
Figures as of 30 June 2023.
The above table is based on the Indicative Model Portfolio gross of fees returns. Individual performance may vary.
Asia Portfolio (ETF-based)
After a positive first quarter start to 2023, Asian equities lost ground in 2Q23 as they corrected by -3.6% (based on MSCI AC Far East ex. Japan Index). There was also bifurcation seen between market performances, with India and Singapore equities returning positively while China equities and Asia REITs corrected. For fixed income, Singapore bond markets held up well and registered positive returns over the quarter despite rising bond yields.
The Asia (Comfy Cruisin’) portfolio returned -1.5% over 2Q23, dragged by China equities and Asian REITs. However, despite the weak market performance, we highlight that the earnings fundamentals for Chinese companies, especially the internet sector, are recovering. As the Chinese economy normalises, it is expected for Chinese corporates to continue to see earnings growth recovery over the next few quarters. Hence, we believe that the portfolios should stay positioned in their China equity exposure as they now offer appealing value. We also stay constructive on SG REITs as we think that the US Federal Reserve may be nearing the end of its current rate hike cycle, which tends to be supportive for REITs.
Asia Portfolio | Slow n’ Steady | Comfy Cruisin’ | Fast n’ Furious | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2Q 2023 | SGD | 0.5% | -1.5% | -2.8% |
Figures as of 30 June 2023.
The above table is based on the Indicative Model Portfolio gross of fees returns. Individual performance may vary.
Market Insights
Timely articles addressing current market events.
digiPortfolio: 2022 in review
29 Dec 2022
digiPortfolio: 2022 in review
2022 was a challenging year for investors with 3 key events dominating headlines. As these events unfolded, the DBS investment team was hard at work monitoring portfolios and making tweaks that aligned them with the views of the DBS CIO office.
As we close out the year, here's a summary of these 3 events that defined 2022 for investors.
The Fed battles inflation
At the start of 2022, the US Federal Reserve had a sanguine view on inflation, describing it as "transitionary" owing to factors such as the Covid-19-related supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine.
However, that did not last long as before the end of 1H22, the Fed started to pivot towards an aggressive tightening policy, taking markets by surprise. This hurt both equity and fixed income markets, which rarely move in tandem.
The Fed funds rate moved sharply upwards from 0% - 0.25% in January to 4.25% - 4.5% in mid-December, effectively ending a decade-long era of ultra-loose monetary policy.
Russia-Ukraine conflict
One of the contributors to rising inflation was energy prices, with a key factor being the war in Ukraine. As Russia is one of the main energy producers globally, the conflict resulted in energy price volatility emerging from supply shortages and sanctions.
Apart on its impact on energy prices, the prolonged incursion in Ukraine was a headwind for investor sentiment.
China’s zero-covid policy
In Singapore, we will likely remember 2022 as the year the city-state eased Covid-19 restrictions. From mask wearing to travel quarantine protocols, we started to transition back to life before.
Other countries eased restrictions too. However, it wasn't the case in China where authorities maintained their zero-Covid stance before finally easing last month. After multiple quarters of suppressed market sentiment, markets lauded these reopening moves and share prices started to rebound.
digiPortfolio in review
Very rarely in the history of financial markets do we see both equities and safer assets like government bonds falling sharply and in tandem. On the back of the Fed pivoting sharply towards aggressive hikes, 2022 was one of those rare years.
Let's review the performance of two of our portfolios.
Global Portfolio (ETF)
On a year-to-date basis, global equities (referencing the MSCI World index) and global bonds (referencing the Bloomberg global aggregate index) returned -18.4% and -16.2% respectively. The Comfy Cruisin’ Global portfolio held up better at -14.8%.
These returns can be attributed to some of the stronger calls made in the portfolio.
When the war in Ukraine first broke in 1Q22, the investment team reduced exposure to European equities as energy prices soared and this positioning helped cushion the portfolio from further downside.
Within fixed-income, with the Fed continuing to sharply hike rates through Q3 with no signs of slowing down, the investment team then shifted towards shorter-duration and higher quality bonds in developed markets. This helped to mitigate volatility arising from interest rate movements and credit risk.
One detractor within the portfolio was the allocation in US equities in Q2. After the price correction in US equities earlier in the year, valuations appeared attractive and presented a compelling entry point for the investment team.
Asia Portfolio (ETF)
Apart from the impact of the Fed’s policy tightening, investor sentiment in Asia was also dampened by China’s reluctance to ease its zero-Covid policy.
Year-to-date, Asia equities (referencing the MSCI Asia Ex Japan index in SGD terms) and Asia bonds (referencing the JPM Asia Credit Index in SGD terms) returned -19.44% and -10.08% respectively. The Comfy Cruisin’ Asia portfolio did fare better as well at -10.8% even without accounting for dividends.
Like our Global portfolio, the investment team held a high quality and defensive stance as the year unfolded.
With increased exposure to IG bonds, S-REITs and government bonds added to the defensive nature of the portfolio.
Maintaining allocation to the Straits Times Index also contributed as one of the few positive performing markets in 2022.
However, our overweight stance on China provided mixed results across different quarters as sentiment ebbed and flowed. Positive returns for Chinese equities in Q2 were negated in Q3 before rallying in November again on expectations of reopening. This remains a constructive view heading into 2023 on valuations as well as re-rating opportunities from reopening.
The road ahead
Heading into 2023, all eyes continue to be on the Fed as they are expected to continue its monetary tightening policy, albeit at a slower pace.
As the saying goes, “never waste a crisis” and the investment team will continue to monitor and seek opportunities as markets evolve.
One’s investment journey is never about a short sprint, and we continue to advocate investors to stay the course, maintain a long-term view, and adopt a patient “dollar-cost average” approach particularly with the experience of 2022 in mind.
This journey is also one that investors do not have to be alone in. As with 2022, the digiPortfolio team will continue to open new communication channels and provide regular updates to you. These are currently available through:
- “Who Moved My digiPortfolio” is a new quarterly video series addressing hot topics driving markets and providing insights on how the digiPortfolio team is keeping portfolios resilient.
- Quarterly commentary from the digiPortfolio investment team on the digiPortfolio dashboard as well as our digiPortfolio insights’ webpage.
- Quarterly digiPortfolio factsheets on the digiPortfolio dashboard.
- Quarterly summarised updates sent to your registered email.
This article was first published in DBS NAV insights, a weekly subscription-only newsletter.
Staying diversified amidst China panic
18 Mar 2022
Staying diversified amidst China panic
The MSCI China Index, which tracks China equities, suffered from a turbulent start to the week as it faced a two-day sell-off, losing more than 14%. It was little different for the Hang Seng Tech Index, which tracks the performance of Chinese technology stocks. It plunged 18% since last Friday (11 Mar 2022).
Recent heavy sell-offs are deemed to be triggered by a combination of factors relating to:
- Worries that US allegations of China’s ties to Russia could lead to further sanctions on Chinese companies
- Regulatory headwinds in sectors like property and technology that have persisted since 2021
- The impact of renewed Covid-19 lockdowns affecting the domestic economy
These concerns outweighed positive economic data on Tuesday signalling strong retail sales and industry output in January and February 2022 as well as assertions that China is not involved in Russia’s war with Ukraine.
Diversification within the portfolio
It is often said that “Too much of a good thing can be bad”. This holds when it comes to investing too. At times, investors can hold a very positive view on certain markets or sectors, which might lead them to invest too heavily into those areas. Instead, investors should realise the importance of sizing up appropriate allocations within a portfolio.
As the largest economy in Asia, China investments would naturally have a place in well diversified global investor’s portfolio, let alone an Asia investor’s portfolio. It is no different for digiPortfolio as its portfolio managers seek to draw on multiple sources of returns, providing for diversification. While a well-diversified portfolio doesn’t eliminate risk, it can cushion the blow from heavy sell-offs in particular markets and sectors.
While the Asia Portfolio (Comfy Crusin’) invests in China equity as well as a China technology index, the allocations are moderated with a 15% allocation to a MSCI China ETF and just 3% in the Hang Seng Tech ETF. The Asia Portfolio further invests in Singapore bonds, Singapore equities, Real Estate Investment Trusts (Reits) and India equities within a well-diversified portfolio.
While the portfolio is down 5.4% for the month, the drawdown is relatively muted compared to the markets and sectors that are feeling the brunt of the turmoil this week.
1M returns in SGD (15 Feb – 14 Mar 2022) |
|
---|---|
MSCI Asia Ex Japan index |
-12.0% |
MSCI China index |
-23.4% |
Hang Seng Technology index |
-30.3% |
Asia Portfolio (Comfy Crusin’) |
-5.4% |
In summary
There are no guarantees in investing but investment principles such as seeking diversification is crucial to tide over challenging market conditions. digiPortfolio offers investors such portfolios driven by the views of the DBS investment team.
This article was first published in DBS NAV insights, a weekly subscription-only newsletter.
Navigating the Russia-Ukraine crisis
03 Mar 2022
Navigating the Russia-Ukraine crisis
The Russia-Ukraine crisis is the main topic on everyone's minds. Many questions have been raised on how the situation may evolve, and how investment portfolios should be positioned.
Here's a factsheet from DBS Chief Investment Office that will address some of the key questions surrounding the conflict.
1. What's happening
Why did the crisis unfold?
In the years after the breakup of the Soviet Union (USSR) in 1991, many newly independent states of the former Eastern Bloc chose to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a defensive alliance.
There are two distinct viewpoints on what triggered the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
The Russian view: NATO's expansion to Eastern Europe is a security threat, with the alliance's intention to admit Ukraine, deemed has crossing the line.
The US view: US President Joe Biden believes Russian leadership is harbouring a bigger ambition beyond Ukraine, to “reestablish the former Soviet Union”.
Sanctions on Russia
Economic and Financial: Limited access to financial systems for banks, key state-owned companies, and individuals as well as asset freezes and visa restrictions.
Technology: Ban on the import and export of technological goods, suspension of licenses, ban on sale of aircraft and equipment, and limits on access to semiconductors and select software.
SWIFT: Banning of some Russian banks from using the platform, which is a messaging network for financial institutions to securely send and receive information.
Low risk of economic contagion
As Russia accounts for only 1.8% of global gross domestic product, the impact on the global economy is likely limited. This compares with 24.7% for US and 17.4% for China. In terms of global trade flows, Russia accounts for only 1.7% of global exports (vs 9.5% for US and 12.1% for China), and 1.4% of global imports (vs 12.8% for US and 10.8% for China).
A bigger threat is likely to come from commodity prices. With Russia a primary exporter of energy to Europe, a prolonged crisis may result in slower production and supply shortages.
US Federal Reserve policy could be affected
With sentiment taking a turn from geopolitical tensions, the Fed could invoke more caution in the hiking cycle and pare back expectations for aggressive hikes.
Unlikely the start of a bear market
On average, global equities have rallied 38% during military conflicts. Rising uncertainties, meanwhile, triggered average gains of 138% for gold and 89% for crude oil.
During the 2014 Crimean crisis, where Russia invaded and annexed the peninsula from Ukraine, global equity markets were flat while gold and oil registered only slight dips.
European banking system little affected
Most European banks derive 1% to 2% of their profits of even less from Russia, and a much lower percentage in terms of total banking assets. Moreover, they have sufficient capital buffers to weather the direct impact of the Ukraine crisis.
The European Central Bank (ECB) could also turn more cautious on policy tightening given the proximity of the crisis to the continent, allowing funding conditions to remain stable while tensions persist.
2. What to expect now
Demand for inflation hedges, geopolitical risks, and volatility is expected to rise leading to higher gold prices. As a hard asset, gold has preserved and risen in value during environments of hyperinflation, stagflation, and negative interest rates. Its attribute of being uncorrelated to risk assets makes it an effective hedge during periods of high volatility.
Europe is most exposed to the conflict due to its proximity as well as dependency on Russia’s energy resources. Domestic sentiments will likely be weak in the near term, and recovery delayed. Investors should stay with resilient sectors such as oil majors, luxury brands, and commodity producers while scanning the banks for exposure to Russia and companies involved in the Nord Stream 2 project, which has been halted.
3. Are there market opportunities?
Investors can consider focusing on sectors and secular themes that are supported by strong fundamentals and resilient against geopolitical events. These are predominantly sectors with globally diversified revenue streams and pricing power.
The investment expressions include US big cap Technology stocks and global Health Care sectors which will maintain outperformance over the broader markets. For Technology, we maintain our conviction on semiconductor upstream and equipment, software services, cyber security, cloud computing, and electric vehicle supply chain. For Health Care, we like large pharmaceuticals and drug developers.
The above is a summary of DBS CIO Perspectives report titled "Factsheet: Navigating the Russia-Ukraine crisis" published on 28 Feb 2022. The full report can be accessed through the DBS Private Bank website, under Market Insights.
This article was first published in DBS NAV insights, a weekly subscription-only newsletter.
Subscribe to DBS NAV insights, a weekly subscription-only newsletter, and stay updated on views from our experts at the DBS CIO office and DBS Group Research.
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