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Forthcoming data releases

China: Exports growth is expected to accelerate to 7.1%yoy in the first two months of 2026. Shipping activity remains strong, supported by improved non-US trade. Container ship deadweight tonnage at 20 major ports averaged 1.52mn tons per day in Jan–Feb, 26.6% higher than the same period last year. International cargo flights also grew 9.2% YoY to 3,024 per week. Consumer prices are expected to rise from 0.2% YoY in January to 0.9% in February, largely reflecting Chinese New Year seasonality. Food CPI is supported by holiday season: the average wholesale prices of 28 key monitored vegetables and fruits have increased 22% from May’s trough, driven by seasonal supply shifts and earlier weather disruptions. On the producer side, factory prices returned to expansion territory in Jan-Feb after 19 months of contraction, as indicated by the producer price sub-PMI.

On monetary front, M2 growth is expected to dip slightly to 8.7% YoY in February, reflecting Chinese New Year seasonality. The gap between M2 and M1 growth is expected to narrow slightly, as both tourism trips and revenue improved during the nine-day holiday. However, monetary conditions show weaker credit growth. Both new corporate and household medium- to long-term loans are expected to decline amid cautious borrowing sentiment and ongoing early repayments.

Taiwan: February trade data are likely to show continued strong double-digit export growth, despite fewer working days due to the Lunar New Year holiday. Global demand for semiconductors and AI servers remains robust, with no clear evidence so far of negative spillovers from the Middle East conflict or the oil price shock. If oil prices remain elevated, this could weigh on global end-demand for consumer electronics. AI-related demand—driven by strategic investment and supported by government policies—is likely to remain relatively resilient.

Key challenges stem from stock market corrections and higher oil prices. Taiwan’s equity valuations are stretched (TWSE market capitalization exceeds 300% of nominal GDP), raising the risk that a market correction could dampen private consumption through negative wealth effects. At the same time, an oil price shock poses a direct headwind to Taiwan’s economy. A 10% increase in oil prices is estimated to reduce Taiwan’s GDP growth by around 0.3 percentage points, primarily by raising imported energy costs and eroding corporate and household purchasing power.

South Korea: The final estimate is likely to show that GDP growth contracted modestly on a QoQ basis in 4Q25, with full-year 2025 growth averaging around 1%. The ongoing Iran-related tensions and resulting oil price shock pose a downside risk to the growth outlook. A 10% increase in oil prices is estimated to lower GDP growth by 0.2–0.4 percentage points, reflecting South Korea’s heavy reliance on energy imports, relatively high energy price pass-through, and the sensitivity of its industrial sector to input costs. In addition, a correction in the KOSPI following prior overheating is adding pressure through negative wealth effects on consumption and investment.

That said, there is no clear evidence so far that the Iran conflict will translate into a broader slowdown in global demand, including technology demand. South Korea’s key semiconductor sector remains resilient, supported by strategic global investment in AI and ongoing memory chip tightness.

Japan: The final GDP estimate is likely to show that economic activity was broadly flat in 4Q25, with full-year 2025 growth averaging around 1%. The recent surge in oil prices amid the Iran conflict poses a downside risk to this year’s growth outlook. We estimate that a 10% increase in oil prices could reduce Japan’s GDP growth by approximately 0.1–0.3 percentage points, mainly through higher energy import costs and a deterioration in the terms of trade.

That said, it remains premature to expect a broad-based slowdown in global demand, particularly for semiconductors, which remain a key driver of Japan’s export performance. Furthermore, the experience of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war suggests that wage–inflation dynamics could strengthen during an oil price shock. Rising inflation expectations may give firms greater pricing power, while corporate profits could be supported by a weaker yen—especially if the Bank of Japan lags other major central banks in policy tightening.

Malaysia: Malaysia’s industrial production (IP) likely remained in solid expansion at the start of 2026, accelerating to 6.2% yoy in January partly on favourable base effects, up from 4.8% yoy in December 2025. The improvement was likely supported by export-oriented manufacturing, underpinned by stronger electrical & electronics exports, which picked up to 39.5% yoy in January from 25.0% yoy in December, driven by global artificial intelligence (AI)-related tailwinds.

India: The second reading under the new rebased inflation series is due this week. We expect a further climb in headline CPI inflation to 3.1% yoy in Feb26 from 2.7% yoy, as the scale of disinflation in food (including vegetables, pulses, etc.) continues to ease, while precious metal price pressures remain firm. Under the new series, core inflation is trending at a more benign level than the old series, due to a combination of subdued run-rates in housing, health and personal care categories (double digit rise but slower than old series). Inflation numbers are unlikely to be a bother for policymakers, with focus instead on improving policy transmission and maintaining financial market stability, in midst of global geopolitical risks.

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