Impact of Rising Oil Price on Global Equities
Prevailing conditions today suggests that equity markets will trend higher in tandem with oil prices
Chief Investment Office22 Sep 2023
  • Global oil prices on a tear amid production cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia
  • OPEC forecasting potential supply shortfall of 3.3m barrels a day for 4Q23
  • Correlation between oil price and equities is on the rise
  • Equities tend to rally in tandem with oil prices during periods of economic expansion
  • Stay engaged on quality plays in the equity space
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Rising energy prices bad for equities? Not necessarily so. Global oil prices have been on a tear, rising 29% since 27 June amid production cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia. Not surprisingly, this has triggered concerns on the trajectory of risk assets. Based on conventional wisdom, rising oil prices translate to higher input cost which will, in turn, result in margin squeeze and lower corporate profitability. This is particularly so for net importer countries such as United States and China.

To be sure, for companies operating in the consumer staples or industrials space with limited pricing power, such train of thought makes sense. But to apply this logic wholesale on the entire equity universe is misguided as historical data shows. There are different moving parts at play here and the important factors which we need to consider are: What is the prevailing state of the economy? And is the increase in oil price demand-driven or supply-driven?

Supply concerns aside, rising energy prices also reflect economic resilience. Saudi Arabia announced plans to extend production cuts till the end of the year and this prompted OPEC to forecast potential supply shortfall of 3.3m barrels a day for 4Q23. The likelihood of Saudi Arabia putting a lid on production and keeping oil price elevated is high. According to Bloomberg Economics, the country needs oil price to stay above USD100/bbl in order for the government to cover its expenditure.

Beyond supply concerns, the recent oil price rally also reflects resilient demand, particularly from China. Based on OPEC’s projections, global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.44m bpd this year, followed by 2.25m in 2024. The robust demand for oil suggests that the current rally is also a function of economic resilience and this augers well for the outlook of risk assets.

Positive historical correlation between oil price and equities. The relationship between oil price and equities has evolved over the years. From 1970 till 1999, we observed a slight negative correlation of -0.046. But by the turn of the century, this relationship is noted to evolve, with correlation turning positive at +0.159 from 2000 till 2009. And since 2010, correlation between the two assets classes went one notch higher to 0.423. This explains why equities has rallied in tandem with oil prices during periods of economic expansion in the recent years.

Figure 1: Relationship between oil and equities
Source: Bloomberg, DBS
*Chart is truncated



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