Company Overview
Swire Properties is a major commercial landlord in Hong Kong with a completed investment property portfolio of 13.5m sf. Key properties include Pacific Place, Taikoo Place, and Cityplaza. In China, Swire Properties has a variety of retail-led mixed-use developments, including Taikoo Hui Sanlitun and INDIGO in Beijing, Taikoo Hui in Guangzhou, HKRI Taikoo Hui in Shanghai, and Sino-Ocean Taikoo Li in Chengdu. The company is the developer of Brickell City Centre in Miami.
Investment Overview
Investing for future. Swire Properties has a proven track record of creating long-term value by developing and managing property complexes via building communities within the precinct. In the coming decade, the company plans to invest HKD100bn in Hong Kong, China, and South-East Asia, with a focus on retail-led mixed-use developments in China, leveraging its widely recognised Taikoo Hui and Taikoo Li brands in tier-1 and emerging tier-1 cities.
Core operations showing improving signs. The Paci?c Place o?ce portfolio is showing signs of stabilisation. Coupled with improving tenant sales momentum across Hong Kong and China's retail portfolios, this should provide solid rental income support. In addition, the recent sale of a luxury development in Island South is expected to generate a decent pro?t, further enhancing bottom-line earnings.
Good long-term value. New retail-led mixed-use developments in Beijing, Shanghai, Sanya, and Xi'an are expected to come onstream starting from 2026. These projects should serve as a key catalyst for Swire Properties' earnings and dividend growth over the medium to long term, which in turn is likely to drive share price appreciation.
BUY with HKD30.38 TP. Following the recent rally, the stock is now trading at a 50% discount to our assessed current NAV, against its 10-year average of 53%. There is scope for long-term share price appreciation. Our TP is based on a target discount of 40% to our Dec-26 NAV estimate.
Key risks:
Any further deterioration in leasing demand for office space in Hong Kong could dampen its earnings and share price performance.