Grab Holdings Ltd
The latest investment analysis on Grab Holdings Ltd
Group Research - Equities21 Oct 2025
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Company Overview
Grab Holdings Limited operates as superapp based on gross merchandize value (GMV) in food deliveries, mobility and the e-wallets segment of financial services. The Company operates across the deliveries, mobility and digital financial services sectors in over 500 cities in eight countries in the Southeast Asia region including Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Its application enables people each day to access its driver and merchant-partners to order food or groceries, send packages, hail a ride or taxi, pay for online purchases or access services such as lending, insurance and wealth management. Its financial services offerings include digital solutions offered by and with its partners to address the financial needs of driver and merchant partners and consumers, including digital payments, lending, receivables factoring, insurance distribution and wealth management in selected markets.
Investment Overview
A dominant on-demand service player. Grab Holdings leads Southeast Asia in delivery and mobility, with positive adjusted EBITDA in both segments (excluding regional costs). Its fintech arm, in partnership with Singtel for digital banking, is set to reduce losses in FY25F and hopefully reach adjusted EBITDA breakeven by FY26F.
Excluding fintech, Grab offers a 40% adj. EBITDA CAGR over FY24-26F, higher than Uber’s 29%. We project an on-demand gross merchandise value (GMV) CAGR of 17% over FY24-26F. Excluding fintech, we project an adj. EBITDA CAGR of 40% over FY24-26F, led by an expansion of delivery margins. Including fintech, Grab offers a 62% adj. EBITDA CAGR supported by a reduction in fintech losses.
Risks
Our bull-case TP is USD8.30 on a 26x on-demand EV/EBITDA (USD951mn), 5.5x fintech EV/revenue, assuming Foodpanda exits. Our bear-case TP is USD6.04 on a 22x on-demand EV/EBITDA (USD725mn), 5.0x fintech EV/revenue.
A dominant on-demand service player. Grab Holdings leads Southeast Asia in delivery and mobility, with positive adjusted EBITDA in both segments (excluding regional costs). Its fintech arm, in partnership with Singtel for digital banking, is set to reduce losses in FY25F and hopefully reach adjusted EBITDA breakeven by FY26F.
Excluding fintech, Grab offers a 40% adj. EBITDA CAGR over FY24-26F, higher than Uber’s 29%. We project an on-demand gross merchandise value (GMV) CAGR of 17% over FY24-26F. Excluding fintech, we project an adj. EBITDA CAGR of 40% over FY24-26F, led by an expansion of delivery margins. Including fintech, Grab offers a 62% adj. EBITDA CAGR supported by a reduction in fintech losses.
Consensus is likely to raise FY26F adj group EBITDA by 28% led by deliveries. Our projected adjusted EBITDA to GMV margins (2.2%/3.2%) exceed consensus (2%/2.4%). We anticipate higher FY26F margins due to new product launches, Foodpanda's potential exit, and Grab's expansion.
Maintain BUY with a revised TP of USD7.55. We peg on-demand at 24x FY26F EV/adj EBITDA (18% premium to Uber, due to Grab's 38% adj. EBITDA CAGR over FY25F-27F vs. Uber's 25%). Fintech is valued at 5.0x 12-month forward revenue (vs. peer 4.6x), reflecting Grab's 23% fintech revenue CAGR vs. peer 8%.
Risks
Our bull-case TP is USD8.30 on a 26x on-demand EV/EBITDA (USD951mn), 5.5x fintech EV/revenue, assuming Foodpanda exits. Our bear-case TP is USD6.04 on a 22x on-demand EV/EBITDA (USD725mn), 5.0x fintech EV/revenue.