- Hong Kong retail sales rebound on the cards.
- Regional inflation data to show elevated upside risks.
- Singapore August production to show continued upward momentum.
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FORTHCOMING DATA RELEASES
Hong Kong SAR
Retail sales growth is expected to accelerate from 4.5% yoy in July to 7.8% in August, supported by an increase in visitor arrivals. The daily average of mainland visitor arrivals rebounded from 2.7% yoy in July to 13.3% in August. This significantly outpaced the growth in outbound tourism to 10.7% in August. The overall diffusion index improved during the month, with both the retail trade and restaurant sectors showing gains. Consumer prices remained steady at 1.7% yoy in August, while the prices of durable goods and food improved to 0.8% and 0.6% yoy, respectively.
Indonesia
September inflation is expected to stay high but not accelerate sharply from August. Headline CPI inflation is projected to rise marginally to 3.3% yoy in September from 3.2% in August. Continued rise in food prices, notably rice and perishables, is expected to be offset by steady subsidised fuel costs. Official price stabilisation measures and inter-province supply adjustments will help to limit the spillover impact of El Niño risks. Evolving inflation dynamics are consisted with the BI’s decision to pause on rates, shifting attention instead towards managing near-term rupiah volatility and external risks.
South Korea
September trade and inflation data will be the key focus in the week ahead. Exports are expected to remain strong at around 60% yoy, supported by front-loading of shipments ahead of the Chuseok holiday (78.3% growth in the first 20 days of September). Headline CPI is expected to remain around 3% yoy, driven by festive demand for food and services ahead of Chuseok. We maintain our forecast for the Bank of Korea to deliver one more 25bps rate hike to 3.25% in 4Q. We do not rule out an additional 25bps hike to 3.50% if elevated global oil prices prove more persistent, adding further upside pressure to CPI in 4Q.
Singapore
We expect Singapore’s industrial production growth to surge to 19.0% yoy in August 2026, sharply higher than the 6.8% yoy in July. This was partly flattered by favourable base effects, as August 2025 marked the lowest monthly reading of that year. The city-state’s factory expansion continued to be driven primarily by strength in electronics and precision engineering, both of which are benefitting from the global artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure build-out and sustained demand for AI hardware.
Vietnam
We expect Vietnam’s real GDP growth to accelerate to 9.4% yoy in 3Q26, stepping up from 8.4% yoy in 2Q26. This growth surge was driven by broad-based strength across electronics production and exports, foreign and public investments, and retail spending, notwithstanding evolving geopolitical developments. The stronger momentum was corroborated by high-frequency indicators from July-August, while September’s data will likely be robust. In July-August, industrial production expanded by an average of 14.9% yoy (from 11.2% yoy average in 2Q26), goods exports grew by 25.5% yoy (gaining from 22.8% yoy in 2Q26), public investments remained robust, alongside resilient domestic and tourism spending, even as inflation remained elevated. Consequently, we see upside risks to our already-bullish 2026 GDP growth forecast of 8.0%.
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