FX Daily: EUR dips with ECB slowing hikes
EUR dips post-ECB while JPY rallies on bank stress
Group Research - Econs, Chang Wei Liang5 May 2023
Article image
Photo credit: Unsplash Photo
Read More

The ECB downshifted to a 25bps hike in its policy meeting yesterday and announced that it will stop APP bond reinvestments in July. ECB President Lagarde added that the move does not signify a pause, and that further rate hikes are still necessary. Nevertheless, EUR/USD slipped towards 1.10 given a clear moderation amongst ECB hawks, which is likely prodded by very soft lending data in the Q1 ECB bank lending survey.

US banks are again under stress. The US regional banks ETF fell by 5% overnight, taking its loss this week to 15% since First Republic entered receivership. News that a Canadian bank has withdrawn its proposed acquisition of a US bank, and speculation of other banks exploring strategic options, have all weighed on sentiment.  In our view, this recent sell-off no longer reflects deeper liquidity woes as deposits had stabilized, but it does flag investor caution over risks of capital shortfalls, dividend stoppage, and a deterioration in loans quality amid high rates.

Amid such uncertainty, safe havens benefited. US Treasury yields slipped while the JPY rallied back to levels seen before last Friday’s BOJ meeting. The sharp JPY rally this week can be ascribed to a confluence of stretched JPY moves post-BOJ, heavy non-commercial short positions being trimmed, and thinner JPY liquidity with Japan out for Golden Week holidays. USD/JPY tumbled towards 134, while EUR/JPY also declined to 148.

Bank of Canada Governor Macklem stated in a speech that the BOC is prepared to hike again if inflation doesn’t slow. A rate hike would be quite a turn given the BOC’s policy pause since January, with Macklem now saying that he is more worried about upside risks to inflation amid a still tight labour market. USD/CAD broke below 1.36 overnight, with markets likely to remember RBA’s surprise rate hike this month after a pause.

China’s private manufacturing PMI for Apr corroborate a slowdown indicated by the official PMI, coming in at 49.5. The reopening has not bolstered manufacturing much with a global slowdown in goods demand. However, media reports of high mainland visitor numbers to Hong Kong and Macau during the Golden Week suggest that services should remain strong. This may reassure investors that China’s recovery is still intact albeit uneven, limiting RMB weakness.


 

Chang Wei Liang

FX & Credit Strategist
[email protected]

 

Subscribe here to receive our economics & macro strategy materials.
To unsubscribe, please click here.
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)

The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). This report is intended for “Accredited Investors” and “Institutional Investors” (defined under the Financial Advisers Act and Securities and Futures Act of Singapore, and their subsidiary legislation), as well as “Professional Investors” (defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong) only. It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation.  Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies.  The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.  The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.

This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E. 

DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability.  18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability.  13th Floor One Island East, 18 Westlands Road, Quarry Bay, Hong Kong SAR

Virtual currencies are highly speculative digital "virtual commodities", and are not currencies. It is not a financial product approved by the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission, and the safeguards of the existing investor protection regime does not apply.  The prices of virtual currencies may fluctuate greatly, and the investment risk is high. Before engaging in such transactions, the investor should carefully assess the risks, and seek its own independent advice.