Growth Recovery in Focus
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Economics Research5 Apr 2024
  • US: Fed reaffirms focus on rate cut trajectory; 2Q24 will mark the peak in US short-term real rates
  • Singapore: Steady MAS policy in upcoming Apr review; lower inflation forecast ahead
  • Thailand: Worst is likely over following the late-Mar approval of the delayed FY2024 budget
  • Vietnam: On track for gradual growth recovery driven by uptick in export-oriented activity
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US: Fed sticks to cautious rate cut strategy. In line with expectations, Fed Chair Jerome Powell affirmed this week that the Fed would reduce the restriction in monetary policy weighing on aggregate demand once it was confident that inflation was on a sustainable path to the 2% target. He noted that accelerated immigration and increased prime-age participation brought a better balance between labour supply and demand.

Prices paid fell a second month to 53.4 from 58.6, its lowest level since March 2020, suggesting negative surprises for next week’s US Consumer Price Index inflation. Services employment increased from 48 in February to 48.5 in March, less than the 49 consensus and below the breakeven 50 level for a second month. Today (5 Apr), markets are bracing for nonfarm payrolls to fall to 213k in March from 275k in February.

According to a US Treasury press release, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will visit China on a diplomatic trip to manage their bilateral economic relationship, and advance American interests. Yellen will likely follow up on China’s “unfair trade practices and non-economic practices,” an issue US President Joe Biden raised during his call with China President Xi Jinping earlier this week and seek more insights on China’s economy.

Peak in US short-term rates. We believe 2Q24 will mark the peak in US short-term real interest rates, defined as the difference between Fed Funds rates and core PCE inflation. Fed policy rate cuts are on the cards from mid-year onward even if core inflation does not ease much more. However, we do not expect negative real rates in this cycle as room for rate cuts through 2024/25 may well be limited by some stickiness in inflation and resilient demand.

Figure 1: 2Q24 should mark peak in US short-term rates


Source: CEIC, DBS
* Short-term real rates calculated by taking the difference between end-quarter Fed Funds rate and the average core PCE inflation for that quarter


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