Equities Weekly: Global Oil and Gas - US Shale Oil Resurgence
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Chief Investment Office17 Apr 2024
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Global oil and gas: US shale oil resurgence. The global oil and gas industry is undergoing a pivotal transition, marked by a resurgence in US shale oil production and a wave of M&A activities. Improving market fundamentals, including disruptions in the global supply chain due to continued geopolitical conflicts, OPEC+’s ongoing production cuts, and stronger-than-expected demand projections, have driven a surge in crude oil prices.

Against this backdrop, US oil production has steadily increased since the second half of 2023, reaching a run rate of 13.2mn barrels per day (mmbpd) by the end of the year - close to pre-pandemic record levels. The resurgence is attributed to increasing production from the shale patch as US independents shift their focus back to volume growth, solidifying the country's position as the world's largest oil producer. Moreover, the ongoing wave of M&A activity is transforming the shale landscape, driving consolidation, economies of scale, and improved cost efficiency.

Overall, this industry transformation is expected to enhance the viability and stability of US shale oil as a mainstream crude oil source and dispel the perception of US shale as a price-sensitive, marginal producer. Oil and gas plays continue to be a relatively safe-haven investment in the energy space, and we recommend exploring opportunities in energy supermajors with strong balance sheets for value-accretive M&A, leading shale operators with technological expertise, and upstream service providers poised to benefit from the new shale boom.

Equity fund flows: The week ended 10 April witnessed outflows across the board for DM and EM equity funds, marking the largest outflow for EM since the start of the year. US Equity Funds saw second largest outflows this year of USD17bn, while Europe continued the outflow trend. This was mainly due to disappointment over recent US inflation data, which prompted markets to revise expectations for the number and timing of US interest rate cuts. Within the EM space, China equity funds saw redemptions of USD0.7bn, despite data signalling signs of economic recovery.


Figure 1: Shale contribution to US production is increasing


Source: Bloomberg, DBS


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