CHF Weakness Still the Conviction Call
SNB’s dovish surprise reinforce CHF weakness
Treasury & Markets, Terence Wu22 Mar 2024
  • SNB surprised with 25 bps rate cut in Mar policy decision; reinforces weak-CHF dynamics
  • Expect continued downside as SNB has shifted from inflation-fighting to focus on growth
  • CHF weakness remains our conviction call
  • After SNB dovish surprise, look to go long USD-CHF on dips, and short CHF-SGD on rallies
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The Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised the market with a 25 bps rate cut in its Mar decision – they are first to cut among the major central banks.

  • The SNB staged a dovish surprise in its Mar policy decision by pencilling in a 25 bps rate cut from 1.75% to 1.50%. Ahead of the decision, the market’s implied pricing only attributed a 30-40% chance of a rate cut.
  • Beyond the rate cut itself, another dovish bit was that the latest inflation forecast for 2024-2026 was revised significantly lower compared to Dec. Recall that the Dec forecasts were already below the 2.0% inflation target across the forecast horizon. Thus, the further downgrade can be seen as a strong signal that the SNB is no longer worried about inflation. We have previously highlighted that headline and core CPI prints in Switzerland have been within the target range for more than six months now – the persistent slippage of inflationary pressures may have spurred the surprise SNB rate cut.
  • There is a good chance that the SNB will follow up this move with another cut in its Jun decision. Market pricing currently attributes an 80 – 85% chance of that happening. With the ECB and Fed also expected to kick off their respective rate cut cycles in Jun, the path of least resistance is for the SNB to follow suit.   

Figure 1: USD-CHF daily chart from Jun 2023

Source: Bloomberg, DBS


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