Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

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Asia

Global / FX, Rates, Credit

Macro Insights Weekly: 12 trade ideas for 2021

November 30, 2020
Macro Insights Weekly: 12 trade ideas for 2021

We outline a dozen macro trade ideas for 2021 in the rates, currency, and credit space, around themes including economic rebound, global search for yield, and weakness in USD.

India / GDP, Rates

India: Upward revision in growth confirms RBI pause

November 30, 2020
India: Upward revision in growth confirms RBI pause

GDP growth recovered sharply in 3Q20 (2QFY) to -7.5% y/y, vs our forecast at -8.0%, as the economy continued to unlock and tracks the broader regional uptrend.

Singapore / Growth, FX

Singapore: Recovery is on track

November 23, 2020
Singapore: Recovery is on track

Third quarter GDP figures released today has further reinforced the view that recovery is underway.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

201820192020f2021f2022f
China6.76.12.07.05.5
Hong Kong2.8-1.2-7.04.02.3
India6.84.9-7.47.64.3
Indonesia5.25.0-2.04.04.5
Malaysia4.74.3-6.86.04.8
Philippines**6.25.9-9.57.06.0
Singapore3.10.7-6.05.53.2
South Korea2.92.0-1.12.92.8
Taiwan2.83.01.84.22.8
Thailand4.22.4-7.53.04.0
Vietnam7.17.02.76.76.8
Eurozone1.90.9-8.04.03.5
Japan0.30.7-5.02.81.5
United States***2.92.3-3.55.02.2
** new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: DBS Group Research, CEIC

CPI inflation, % YoY

201820192020f2021f2022f
China2.12.92.32.52.5
Hong Kong2.42.90.72.02.5
India4.03.76.74.24.0
Indonesia3.22.82.02.22.8
Malaysia1.00.7-1.11.42.0
Philippines**5.22.52.43.02.8
Singapore0.40.6-0.20.91.5
South Korea1.50.40.20.51.0
Taiwan1.30.60.10.51.0
Thailand1.10.7-1.01.01.3
Vietnam3.52.83.73.33.6
Eurozone1.81.20.31.01.2
Japan1.00.5-0.10.00.5
United States***1.92.31.31.72.2
** new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: DBS Group Research, CEIC

Exchange rates, end of period

4Q201Q212Q213Q214Q21
Mainland China*6.66.76.676.646.61
Hong Kong7.767.767.767.777.77
India74.474.874.774.674.5
Indonesia14,20014500144291435714286
Malaysia4.114.124.14.094.07
Philippines48.348.548.348.248
Singapore**1.351.361.351.351.34
South Korea1,1131,1161,1161,1161,115
Taiwan
Thailand30.53130.830.630.4
Vietnam***23,19023,20023,15023,10023,050
Eurozone1.171.161.171.191.2
Japan105106106106106
United States

Policy interest rates, end of period

4Q201Q212Q213Q214Q21
Mainland China*3.853.853.853.853.85
Hong Kong
India4.004.004.004.004.00
Indonesia3.753.753.753.753.75
Malaysia1.751.751.752.002.00
Philippines2.002.002.002.002.00
Singapore**0.120.120.120.120.12
South Korea0.500.500.500.500.50
Taiwan1.131.131.131.131.13
Thailand0.500.500.500.500.50
Vietnam***4.004.004.505.005.00
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10
United States0.250.250.250.250.25

From the Asian Insights Office

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Global / FX,Rates

Macro Strategy: Covid stress in the US; tight conditions in...

December 01, 2020
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November rally may not extend into December

Global / FX,Credit

FX Daily: Betting on momentum, not fundamentals

November 30, 2020
Global

Currencies are testing key resistance levels at the end of November.

Insights and Analysis

Global / Economics & Strategy

Research Library...

December 01, 2020

Economics and Macro Strategy

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