Profile
Previous Close Price
Key Statistics
| Dec THB mn | 2025 | 2026f | 2027f |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 281,449 | 326,632 | 317,225 |
| Net Profit | 58,726 | 77,148 | 67,625 |
| Profit Gth (%) | (25.8) | 31.4 | (12.3) |
| PE (X) | 9.6x | 7.5x | 8.5x |
| Div Yield (%) | 5.9 | 6.3 | 5.5 |
| P/BV (X) | 1.1x | 1.0x | 0.9x |
Recent Developments
- 08 Oct 2026PTT Exploration & Production: Bumpy 3Q26F
- 11 Aug 2026PTT Exploration & Production: Chemical Scarcity Premium Fades in 2H26
- 02 Aug 2026PTT Exploration and Production PCL: Intact 3Q26F
- 06 Jul 2026PTT Exploration & Production: Outstanding 2Q26F. Attractive Valuation, Robust Yield
- 02 Jun 2026PTT Exploration & Production: Hormuz resilence
- 05 May 2026PTT Exploration & Production: Solid 1Q26 Core, Stronger 2Q26F Incoming
- 06 Apr 2026PTT Exploration & Production: 1Q26F hit by hedging loss
- 10 Mar 2026PTT Exploration & Production: Our crisis-resilient top pick
- 10 Feb 2026PTT Exploration & Production: Key beneficiary from oil price hike
- 08 Jan 2026PTT Exploration & Production: Was 4Q25F the best quarter of 2025F?
Our Views
Stronger oil price expected in 2026F. We expect Brent prices to have fluctuated in the range of USD75-80/bbl in 2026F, up from USD65-75/bbl previously. This is supported by the ongoing US-Iran conflict is leading to direct attacks on regional energy infrastructure and the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, EIA/IEA forecasts that global oil supply growth rising 2.4–2.5 mbd to ~108.6 mbd against demand growth of only 850–930 kbd — implying ~3.1 mbd inventory builds through 2026.
Volume growth of c.3.5% projected till 2030F. PTTEP announced a five-year (2026-2030F) spending plan of c.USD20.7bn, of which c.USD16.6bn would be used as capital expenditure for production activities in Thailand, the Middle East, Malaysia, and Africa. PTTEP aims to grow production volume at a 3.5% CAGR over this period – from c.510kobed in 2025F to 609kboed in 2030F.
Crude and gas prices to dictate financial and share price performance. PTTEP’s core business is upstream (crude oil and natural gas). Our analysis reveals a strong positive correlation (0.88) between oil price and share price performance. Government actions on national policy are also likely to impact PTTEP’s share price.
Attractive valuation and robust yield. PTTEP remains our top pick. Maintain BUY. We maintain our BUY rating with an FY26F TP of THB174, based on a DCF valuation using a WACC of 11.69% and a terminal growth rate of 1%. We continue to favour PTTEP as our highest-conviction re-escalation long, supported by attractive valuations across key metrics, including P/E, EV/EBITDA, and sector-leading dividend yield (7.5x P/E, 3.0x EV/EBITDA, and 6.9% dividend yield vs. the sector average of 11.9x P/E, 8.3x EV/EBITDA, and 6% dividend yield), providing downside protection even if the war premium fades.
